Last Time This Bitcoin Statistic Hit A New High, BTC Surged 3.5x—And It’s Back

The so-called “HODLwave” of Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high. The metric indicates the amount of unmoved BTC on the blockchain in the past 12 months. It typically suggests that investors are increasingly accumulating the dominant cryptocurrency.

Researchers at Cryptowatch, a crypto market data company owned by U.S. exchange Kraken, wrote:

“Bitcoin’s 1-year HODL wave—BTC unmoved on the blockchain over the last 365 days—has hit a new all-time high of 63%. Bitcoin’s HODL wave is up 1% since the start of July.”

The last time this many users held onto Bitcoin without transferring it to other addresses was in early-2019. At the time, BTC rallied from around $4,000 to $14,000, recording a 250% uptrend.

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Various On-Chain Metrics Hint At Improving Bitcoin Market Sentiment

The “HODLing” activity of Bitcoin has continuously hit new highs since late last month.

On June 30, Altana Digital Currency Fund’s chief investment officer Alistair Milne said the metric hit 62%. He predicted that it could hit 70% at its peak during the ongoing cycle.

Milne said:

“HODL’ing for a year or more just made a new ATH of 62%. Similar levels of HODL last seen during a 3-month consolidation at around $400 before starting a two-year bull run. Guesstimate that this cycle will peak around 70%?”

Since then, within a month, the price of Bitcoin rallied from $9,187 to over $11,000. On July 27’s peak, BTC rose to as high as $11,417 on spot exchanges, such as Bitstamp.

Apart from the HODLwave, other on-chain metrics and statistics suggest that the market sentiment around Bitcoin remains positive.

Most recently, market data firm Glassnode said the number of Bitcoin addresses holding at least $1 million surged to 18,000.

The statistic shows that new “whales”—investors holding a significant amount of Bitcoin—have increased in prominence over recent months.

Historically, when new whales bought Bitcoin, it led to strong rallies. 

For instance, data from Glassnode shows the number of new whales increased in December 2017 and July 2019. In those two months, Bitcoin surpassed $20,000 and $14,000, respectively.

Other Data That Suggest More Volatility Is Likely Incoming

On July 29, Grayscale said that the assets under management (AUM) of the company reached $5.1 billion.

Accredited and institutional investors in the U.S. usually gain exposure to BTC through the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

Grayscale’s record-high holdings indicate that the involvement of institutions in the cryptocurrency market is still high.

The daily trading volumes of the spot, options, and futures markets are continuing to increase, showing heightened demand for crypto.

Atop the exchange data, Ki Young-ju, the CEO of on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant, said whales have begun sending Bitcoin and stablecoins to exchanges.

He said:

“BTC whales are sending Bitcoins to exchanges. #Stablecoin whales are sending stablecoins to exchanges as well. This week will be a battle between Stablecoin and Bitcoin exchange inflows. These inflows indicate potential buy/sell pressures.”

A confluence of optimistic on-chain statistics, an overall increase in trading activity, and the rising involvement of whales could further improve the sentiment around Bitcoin.

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